📣 Ford Inc. (F) – Earnings Preview (May 5, 2025, After Market Close)

Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) heads into its May 5, 2025, after-market earnings release on the back of a solid run in its share price, up 7.3% over the past month amid reports that President Trump may exempt U.S. automakers from certain tariffs. Trading at $10.28, shares are 2.4% higher over the past week, positioning the stock to react strongly to today’s results.

Earnings Expectations

Analysts forecast Q1 revenue of $44.06 billion, up 10.45% year-over-year, signaling continued top-line momentum in Ford’s truck, SUV and EV segments. Consensus EPS of $0.47 represents a 4.08% decline from prior-year levels, reflecting margin pressure from higher commodity and logistics costs. Together, these estimates suggest that while growth remains intact, profitability may face headwinds heading into 2025.

Recent Stock Performance

Current Price: $10.28

1-Week: +2.39%

1-Month: +7.31%

3-Month: +3.94%

6-Month: –3.02%

1-Year: –17.30%

Technical Momentum Indicators

RSI (14): 59.34 – below overbought threshold, suggesting room to run.

MFI: 71.62 – edging into overbought territory.

StochRSI: 93.26 – overbought, indicating a potential near-term pullback.

CCI: 130.87 – above +100, signaling strong upward momentum.

Price vs. 20-Day Moving Averages: SMA20: $9.67 | EMA20: $9.86 | Current Price: $10.28 – trading well above both, reinforcing bullish short-term trend.

Options Activity

Total Premium (Notional): $4.20 million

IV Rank: 40%

Call Volume: 72,601

Put Volume: 79,205

Put/Call Ratio: 1.09 – modestly bearish tilt

Total Open Interest: 2.87 million

Change in OI: +22,449

30-Day IV: 37%

Recent options flows show slightly more puts than calls and a middling IV rank, suggesting institutions are hedging against a potential downside surprise rather than outright bullish bets.

Short Interest

Shares Short: 160.5 million

Short Float: 4.59% of float

Short Outstanding: 4.04% of shares outstanding

Failures to Deliver: 3,000 shares

Relative FTD: 0.00%

Short interest is moderate, and minimal fails-to-deliver indicate the borrow market remains stable.

Analyst Rating

Number of Analysts: 15 | Consensus Rating: Hold | Average Price Target: $9.00 (–12.5% downside)

The street remains cautious, pricing in modest downside to the current share price.

Valuation & Fundamentals

P/E (TTM): 7.04 | Forward P/E: 6.34 | PEG: 0.19 | P/S: 0.21 | P/B: 0.88 | Gross Margin: 14.36% | Net Margin: 3.18%

Ford trades at multi-year lows on a P/E basis, with valuation metrics that appear stretched only if one assumes persistent margin compression. Current margins and improving EV mix offer some support for a higher multiple.

Cash Flow & Balance Sheet Strength

Operating Cash Flow: $15.42 B | Free Cash Flow: $6.74 B | Cash & Short-Term Investments: $38.35 B

Current Ratio: 1.16 | Debt/Equity: 3.59

Robust cash generation and a sizeable liquidity buffer temper concerns around leverage, although Ford’s net debt of $137.9 B (debt/market cap of 4.03) remains elevated.

Risks and Considerations

Stock-Based Compensation: $511 M (0.28% of revenue) – a modest drag on profitability.

Valuation Sensitivity: Valuation multiples could re-rate sharply if margins disappoint.

Technical Risks: Overbought StochRSI and CCI readings, combined with a 30-day Value-at-Risk of –26.63%, suggest the stock is vulnerable to a pullback if guidance misses.

The Bottom Line

Ford enters earnings season with mixed signals: strong revenue growth offset by margin pressures and cautious market positioning. While valuation and cash flow underpin a bullish case, overbought technicals and a negative options tilt imply the stock could retrace if guidance disappoints. Conversely, an upside surprise to EPS or margin outlook may catalyze further gains into year-end.

For a detailed look at the data, visit: stocknear.com/stocks/F

Happy Investing!