Walmart (WMT) Earnings Preview: Key Stock Analysis May 2025

With its stock showing an impressive surge of over 60% in the past year, all eyes are on Walmart Inc. (WMT) as it prepares to announce its upcoming earnings on May 15, 2025, before the market opens. If you're following Walmart's performance, you'll want to know what analysts are predicting for this retail giant. This stock analysis looks into the key numbers and trends for WMT.

Earnings Expectations for Walmart

For the upcoming report, Wall Street analysts have set specific targets for Walmart. The consensus estimate for revenue is $164.67 billion. This figure would represent a year-over-year (YoY) growth of 1.96%. On the earnings front, the projection for earnings per share (EPS) is $0.59. This EPS forecast indicates a slight decrease of -1.67% compared to the same quarter last year.

These expectations suggest a picture of steady, albeit modest, top-line growth for Walmart, while profitability per share might see a small dip. Investors will be keenly watching these figures and any management commentary that analyzes the underlying reasons. The upcoming Walmart earnings will be a key indicator of its current fiscal health.

Breaking Down Walmart's Business Metrics

Walmart's vast operations are diversified across several key segments. Understanding these can give you a clearer view of where its revenue originates:

• Walmart U.S.: The largest segment, encompassing retail stores and e-commerce in the United States.
• Walmart International: Operations outside the U.S., covering various countries and retail formats.
• Sam's Club: The membership-only warehouse club division.

To get a more granular look at how these segments are performing and explore other detailed business metrics for WMT, you can find more information here.

How Walmart's Stock Has Been Performing

Reflecting recent market sentiment, Walmart's stock (WMT) currently has a ticker price of $97.61. Here’s a snapshot of its recent returns:

• 1-Week Return: +0.21%
• 1-Month Return: +19.34%
• 3-Month Return: -3.5%
• 6-Month Return: +15.07%
• 1-Year Return: +61.87%

This performance, especially the significant 1-month and 1-year gains, highlights strong positive momentum leading up to the earnings release. For a deeper stock analysis of Walmart Inc. including concise statistics and key financial ratios for Walmart Inc. – view them here.

Technical & Momentum Indicators for WMT

Looking at the technicals for WMT, several indicators provide insights into its current momentum:

• RSI (Relative Strength Index): 64.61. This is approaching the overbought territory (typically above 70).
• MFI (Money Flow Index): 75.04. This suggests strong buying pressure and is entering the overbought zone.
• StochRSI (Stochastic RSI): 86.37. This is in the overbought territory, indicating the stock may be due for a pullback.
• CCI (Commodity Channel Index): 116.38. Values above +100 often signal strong upward momentum and potential overbought conditions.

Currently, Walmart's stock price of $97.61 is trading above its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $95.03 and its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $95.14, which is generally a bullish sign in the short term. However, the overbought signals from MFI and StochRSI warrant attention.

Options Market Sentiment for Walmart

The options market can offer clues about institutional sentiment and expected volatility around the Walmart earnings. Here are some key figures for WMT:

• Total Premium: $90,203,777
• IV Rank (Implied Volatility Rank): 67.86%. This relatively high rank suggests that current implied volatility is elevated compared to its levels over the past year.
• Call Volume: 59,149
• Put Volume: 32,358
• Put-Call Ratio: 0.55. A ratio below 1 typically indicates more bullish sentiment (more calls being traded than puts).
• Total Open Interest (OI): 1,565,129
• Change in OI: +11,069
• IV30 (30-Day Implied Volatility): 0.34. This implies an expected stock price movement of about 34% annually.

The put-call ratio suggests a generally positive sentiment from options traders. The high IV Rank points to expectations of notable price movement following the earnings announcement. Access real-time options chains and key derivatives data for Walmart Inc. – explore them here.

A Look at Walmart's Short Interest

Short interest data can reveal how many investors are betting against WMT. Current figures show:

• Short Float %: 1.09%
• Shares Short: 46,588,541
• % of Shares Outstanding Short: 0.58%
• Fail-to-Deliver Shares: 330
• Relative FTD (%): 0.0%

The percentage of float short is relatively low, suggesting that not a large portion of the market is currently betting heavily against Walmart's stock price. Access up-to-date short interest figures for Walmart Inc. via Short Interest Data.

What Analysts Are Saying About WMT Stock

Currently, 30 analysts cover Walmart Inc. (WMT), with an overall consensus rating of "Buy". The average analyst price target for WMT is $107.00, suggesting a potential upside of approximately 9.6% from the current ticker price.

Among these, views from 3 top analysts give a slightly more conservative price target of $95.00, though they also maintain a "Buy" rating. These analyst ratings are a crucial part of any stock analysis. Access consensus analyst forecasts for Walmart Inc. via Analyst Forecasts.

Valuation & Fundamentals for Walmart

When you look at Walmart's valuation, several ratios offer context:

• P/E Ratio (Price-to-Earnings): 40.61. This is relatively high, suggesting investors expect future earnings growth.
• PEG Ratio (Price/Earnings-to-Growth): 1.56. A PEG around 1 can indicate a fair valuation relative to expected growth; 1.56 suggests the stock might be somewhat richly valued based on its growth forecast.
• P/S Ratio (Price-to-Sales): 1.16.
• P/B Ratio (Price-to-Book): 8.67.
• Gross Profit Margin: 24.85%
• Net Profit Margin: 2.85%

While Walmart's P/E ratio seems elevated, its massive scale and market leadership often command a premium. The key will be whether the upcoming earnings report and future forecast justify this valuation. Access comprehensive fundamental data for Walmart Inc. via Financials. This data is vital for any Walmart stock analysis.

Walmart's Cash Flow & Balance Sheet Health

A company's financial stability is often reflected in its cash flow and balance sheet. For Walmart (WMT):

• Free Cash Flow (TTM): $12.66 billion. This is a healthy amount of cash generated after capital expenditures.
• Operating Cash Flow (TTM): $36.44 billion. Strong cash generation from core operations.
• Cash & Cash Equivalents: $9.04 billion (as of the last reported balance sheet).
• Current Ratio: 0.82. This is below 1, which can sometimes indicate potential liquidity pressure, but is common for large retailers with efficient inventory management.
• Debt/Equity Ratio: 0.66. This indicates a moderate level of leverage.

Overall, Walmart maintains strong cash generation. While the current ratio is something to monitor, the company's ability to produce significant operating and free cash flow provides financial flexibility.

Risks & Considerations for WMT Investors

Before the Walmart earnings release, you should consider a few potential risks:

• Stock-Based Compensation Impact: The provided data shows stock-based compensation to revenue at 0%, which is unusual and might need closer examination in financial reports. Typically this isn't zero.
• Valuation Sensitivity: With a P/E ratio over 40, WMT stock could be sensitive to any earnings miss or downward revision in its growth forecast.
• Technical Overbought Risk: As noted, indicators like MFI (75.04) and StochRSI (86.37) suggest the stock might be in overbought territory, potentially leading to a short-term price correction.
• 30-Day VaR (Value at Risk): The 30-day Value at Risk is reported at 13.61%, suggesting a potential downside risk of this magnitude over the next month with a 95% confidence level.

Conclusion & Bottom Line on Walmart Earnings

Bottom Line: Walmart (WMT) heads into its earnings announcement with strong recent stock performance and analyst backing, though with a revenue growth forecast that is modest and an EPS forecast showing a slight decline. The stock's current valuation is on the higher side, meaning the company's report and outlook will be heavily scrutinized.

While technical indicators suggest a possible short-term pullback due to overbought conditions, the company's fundamental strengths in cash flow and market position remain significant. The options market anticipates movement, and the relatively low short interest suggests most investors are not betting against a positive outcome for the Walmart stock analysis. Investors will be looking for reassurance that Walmart can continue to navigate the competitive retail landscape and deliver on growth expectations to support its current ticker price.

Happy Investing!