Step 1: Project Free Cash Flow
The most recent Free Cash Flow (TTM) value is
1,280.4B
as of Jun 30, 2025.
We will project this out 5 years with a yearly growth
rate of
-11.16%.
Starting with 1,280.4B and growing at -11.16%
for 5 years, we estimate Free Cash Flow will be
708.6B.
Step 2: Project Future Diluted Shares Outstanding
The most recent Diluted Shares Outstanding value is 17.44B.
We will project this out 5 year(s) with a growth rate
of 0.49%.
Estimated Diluted Shares Outstanding: 17.87B.
Step 3: Project Future Stock Price
Using a price ratio of 0.51, formula: (Future Free Cash Flow ÷ Future Diluted Shares Outstanding)
× Price Ratio
(708.6B ÷ 17.87B) × 0.51 =
$20
Step 4: Project Future Dividends Paid
Forward dividend per share: $1.96.
Projected over 5 years with a growth rate of
-0.93%, dividends add to total shareholder return.
Expected dividends in 5 years:
$9.573736787535031.
Step 5: Discount the Projected Stock Price
Projected stock price: $20.
Including dividends, total future value: $29.57.
Discounted at 10% per
year over 5 years → Fair Value:
$18.
